Abramowitz has tracked the effect of those variables on the last 15
presidential elections and found that they accurately predicted the
popular vote outcome in 14 and came close in the 15th.
The formula adds the incumbent president’s net approval rating
(approval minus disapproval), the second-quarter election-year GDP
growth rate multiplied by five (emphasizing the importance of the
economy) and then (factoring in time-for-a-change sentiment) subtracts
25 points if the in-party is finishing a second term.
Bush’s net approval now stands at minus 40. The first-quarter growth
rate was 0.6 percent and Bush is finishing eight years, meaning that
this year’s electoral barometer currently stands at minus 62.
If such a number holds, it “would predict a decisive defeat for the
Republican presidential candidate,” Abramowitz wrote. “The only
election since World War II with a score in this range was 1980,” when
“Jimmy Carter suffered the worst defeat for an incumbent president
since Herbert Hoover in 1932.”
The second worst occurred in 1952, when Democrat Adlai Stevenson
tried to succeed Harry S. Truman with a minus 50 score and lost the
popular vote by 11 points to Dwight D. Eisenhower.
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